OK, so I really couldn't wait for TMQ to step out and be the voice of reason among all the noise after Bill Belicheck bucked convention and went for the win on Sunday night.
First of all, I hate the Patriots and specifically I have a ton of sports hate for Bill Belicheck. The man is a cheater and a douchebag. So for me, the first test that keeping the offense on the field in an attempt to end the game is that as soon as I realized what was happening I felt a growing sense of dread. I don't think I'd have felt the same dread if it was a dumb idea.
Second, it is clear that the Patriot defense was getting tired. They'd done a really good job of holding the Colts in check early in the game. But they were short staffed on the D line, making it very difficult to bring pressure as the game wore on. Based on the ease with which the Colts moved the ball into the end zone on their two touchdown drives in the 4th quarter I don't think it is a big stretch to think that the best clutch QB in the league could do it again.
The big fallacy here is that Belicheck took some huge, ridiculous gamble by going for the first down. Lets think about this. He was gambling by asking the best player on his team to gain two yards and end the game right then and there. I'm supposed to think that the safe play was to literally hand the ball to a QB having an MVP caliber season who will eventually be put into the NFL hall of fame based on his football IQ and ability to run the 2 minute drill with deadly efficiency.
The problem here is that everyone is judging this call based on the outcome- something that makes no sense. A given football play involves so many variables, so many individual battles. From offensive linemen getting the line calls and blocking assignments and then actually executing their blocks against highly paid professional opponents. Receivers and quarterbacks making the same read of the defense, each knowing what the other expects- then running the appropriate route, making the accurate throw and securing the catch. All in the face of a pass rush and disguised coverages.
Are we to believe that Brad Childress read 'Offensive Schemes for Dummies' this offseason? Was Brian Billick hit in the head the summer he moved from Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss to coach the Ravens? Did someone steal Steve Spagnuolo's playbook when he left NY? Or is it possible that the talent level of players and the execution on the field has some amount of impact on the success or failure of a given playcall? The 'right-ness' of a playcall must be judged with all of these factors in mind.
The Patriots gained an average of 6.6 yards per offensive play. They gained 4.0 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass (including sacks). I don't see how it can be considered a risk to take your best players- Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Randy Moss, Possible Hall of Famer Wes Welker and clutch back Kevin Faulk- and give those players a chance to do 1/3 as well as they did on average over the course of their whole evening. And if they are successful? You keep the other team's best players off the field and end the game. Great, great call. Unfortunate outcome.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
The Head Scratchers
I'm going to wrap today up with a short one, as there were not a lot of shockers that I could really argue with.
The Jets gave up a fair amount, both in terms of picks, players and eventual guaranteed money to a QB in Mark Sanchez who has impressed in offseason workouts and interviews but whose resume is extremely short. Matt Cassel sort of proved last year that experience isn't everything, but it is hard not to look at this move as a gamble.
The Colts down in the later portion of the first round- I just saw many more needs than RB to allow a luxury pick at that position. I might look at WR, LB or DL as players that could step in immediately and produce, but with Joseph Addai and Mike Hart already in place I just don't see this pick.
Finally, I know I'm not alone in wondering what Darrius Heyward-Bey was doing at the top of the first round. When is Al Davis going to give up control of football operations and let the Raiders start digging themselves out of league-wide joke territory?
The Jets gave up a fair amount, both in terms of picks, players and eventual guaranteed money to a QB in Mark Sanchez who has impressed in offseason workouts and interviews but whose resume is extremely short. Matt Cassel sort of proved last year that experience isn't everything, but it is hard not to look at this move as a gamble.
The Colts down in the later portion of the first round- I just saw many more needs than RB to allow a luxury pick at that position. I might look at WR, LB or DL as players that could step in immediately and produce, but with Joseph Addai and Mike Hart already in place I just don't see this pick.
Finally, I know I'm not alone in wondering what Darrius Heyward-Bey was doing at the top of the first round. When is Al Davis going to give up control of football operations and let the Raiders start digging themselves out of league-wide joke territory?
Sensible Moves on Day One
While its true that Detroit really could not have gone wrong today in looking to improve a historically bad team, I'm a fan of their moves among several other surprising teams today.
The Bengals have never really been known for smart personnel decisions, but pickups at Tackle and ILB are safe moves at positions of need that should help Carson Palmer stay upright and solidify an up and coming defense with the healthy return of last year's #1, Keith Rivers.
And the Denver Broncos, entering a new post-douchebag in the front office era made the right moves- finally acknowledging a need for actual talent at RB after years of insisting that anyone would succeed in their system. Following that up with help on the d line and the secondary for a consistently underachieving defensive unit makes a ton of sense.
Philly has got to get points for trading one first rounder for a proven Pro Bowl caliber tackle and using a second first rounder on an additional threat at the WR position. While I am happy with the initial selections, they are going to need to do something sooner rather than later to get help in the defensive backfield.
The Bengals have never really been known for smart personnel decisions, but pickups at Tackle and ILB are safe moves at positions of need that should help Carson Palmer stay upright and solidify an up and coming defense with the healthy return of last year's #1, Keith Rivers.
And the Denver Broncos, entering a new post-douchebag in the front office era made the right moves- finally acknowledging a need for actual talent at RB after years of insisting that anyone would succeed in their system. Following that up with help on the d line and the secondary for a consistently underachieving defensive unit makes a ton of sense.
Philly has got to get points for trading one first rounder for a proven Pro Bowl caliber tackle and using a second first rounder on an additional threat at the WR position. While I am happy with the initial selections, they are going to need to do something sooner rather than later to get help in the defensive backfield.
The Titans Finally go WR in the First Round
Kenny Britt had been moving up draft boards in recent days, and the Titans got over their fear of committing to a wideout in round one with his selection. This move is definitely more conservative than the trade for Anquan Boldin I would have loved to see- and a run-first offense should be a good environment to slowly bring a young wide receiver along. If he's half as good as CJ turned out to be last year this will be a great pick.
I wonder...
If New England regrets trading back a couple of spots now.
I have to think that secondary is far and away the biggest need for them, and they missed out on a physical player and the second overall pick in the defensive backfield.
I have to think that secondary is far and away the biggest need for them, and they missed out on a physical player and the second overall pick in the defensive backfield.
The Jim Schwartz Era Has Begun
With two offensive picks? Although when you can get two players rated at the top of their positions, and when you can get a potential franchise quarterback and a reliable safety valve at TE to help his development, you've had a pretty good day.
It'd be pretty interesting to think of a team spending three top picks on the offensive side of the ball, but I think OL becomes far and away the biggest need to protect their #1 overall investment and help his development. I'm giving the Lions some respect today, for the first time in recent draft history.
It'd be pretty interesting to think of a team spending three top picks on the offensive side of the ball, but I think OL becomes far and away the biggest need to protect their #1 overall investment and help his development. I'm giving the Lions some respect today, for the first time in recent draft history.
Halfway Through the First Round
And we round it out with Tampa Bay trading ahead of Denver to take the first round QB Gruden always wanted. I'm not sure if I wouldn't have wanted to look for an OLB if I was in Tampa's draft room, but you can't argue with wanting someone other than Luke McCown on staff before training camp.
Well You Know the Shannahan Era is Over...
When you see Denver taking a first round RB.
This is probably a better move than it might look on the surface, considering that they've gone ahead and taken a step backwards at the QB position. Moreno should come right in and help provide the kind of production on the ground that a guy like Kyle Orton or Chris Simms will end up really appreciating this fall.
This is probably a better move than it might look on the surface, considering that they've gone ahead and taken a step backwards at the QB position. Moreno should come right in and help provide the kind of production on the ground that a guy like Kyle Orton or Chris Simms will end up really appreciating this fall.
Surprises so far
Was Tyson Jackson a reach at number 3? If you're trying to build a defense for the long haul, I don't see how you can be criticized for picking a player that you feel fits your system much better than the rest of the field. It looks like my theme this year is ripping on the obsession with measurables.
I'm also interested in the Jets spending so much to move up and get Mark Sanchez. Its quite apparent he has got the personality to deal with the New York media- the question I have is if he's going to have the ability to pick up the mental aspects of the pro game and produce on the field- something he did not do very much of at the college level.
And as I type this- Darrius Heyward-Bey???? It'll be interesting to see how far Crabtree is going to fall based on his lack of offseason workouts. I don't know if I'm out of line- but I'm more or less stunned.
I'm also interested in the Jets spending so much to move up and get Mark Sanchez. Its quite apparent he has got the personality to deal with the New York media- the question I have is if he's going to have the ability to pick up the mental aspects of the pro game and produce on the field- something he did not do very much of at the college level.
And as I type this- Darrius Heyward-Bey???? It'll be interesting to see how far Crabtree is going to fall based on his lack of offseason workouts. I don't know if I'm out of line- but I'm more or less stunned.
Michael Crabtree and the Future of Draftniks?
Here's something I've been thinking about since news broke at the scouting combine about how Michael Crabtree is the unluckiest man alive.
By all appearances it looks like Crabtree is going to end up going in the top 5-10, despite not participating in any of the traditional workouts. If this is the case and Crabtree ends up having any sort of success at the next level he could be responsible for bringing some common sense back to scouting- in terms of an increased focus on in game performance versus unrealistic measurables. Thoughts?
By all appearances it looks like Crabtree is going to end up going in the top 5-10, despite not participating in any of the traditional workouts. If this is the case and Crabtree ends up having any sort of success at the next level he could be responsible for bringing some common sense back to scouting- in terms of an increased focus on in game performance versus unrealistic measurables. Thoughts?
Draft Day is Upon Us
And in this economy, it appears the trend of agreeing to terms with the top pick prior to the draft will continue, with the Lions and Matthew Stafford at number 1.
I was pretty down on Atlanta taking Matt Ryan at third overall last year on a team with so many apparent holes, and look at how that has turned out. I still think it might be a better move to put more pieces in place on a team that managed no wins last year before taking a young quarterback and throwing him to the wolves.
The Lions do have the benefit of another first round pick and several mediocre veteran QBs on the roster, so rookie head coach Jim Schwartz will have the opportunity to let Stafford grow into his position naturally and still be able to add other needed pieces to his team.
I'm getting ready to tune in the coverage, so look for these posts to increase in frequency as 4pm approaches.
I was pretty down on Atlanta taking Matt Ryan at third overall last year on a team with so many apparent holes, and look at how that has turned out. I still think it might be a better move to put more pieces in place on a team that managed no wins last year before taking a young quarterback and throwing him to the wolves.
The Lions do have the benefit of another first round pick and several mediocre veteran QBs on the roster, so rookie head coach Jim Schwartz will have the opportunity to let Stafford grow into his position naturally and still be able to add other needed pieces to his team.
I'm getting ready to tune in the coverage, so look for these posts to increase in frequency as 4pm approaches.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Welcome Back
This is the (not) new and (not at all) improved Armchair Quarterback.
I am committing to sparking some conversation here over the course of the season, starting tomorrow where I will criticize your team's picks live, and no doubt rip into Mel Kiper as often as possible.
I plan on using this space both to vent about the NFL and to supplement the various Fantasy Football leagues I've got in the hopper for this fall. So join me in yet another ridiculous effort to waste time on sports!
I am committing to sparking some conversation here over the course of the season, starting tomorrow where I will criticize your team's picks live, and no doubt rip into Mel Kiper as often as possible.
I plan on using this space both to vent about the NFL and to supplement the various Fantasy Football leagues I've got in the hopper for this fall. So join me in yet another ridiculous effort to waste time on sports!
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