Tuesday, November 17, 2009

I Just Needed the Right Motivation to Post

OK, so I really couldn't wait for TMQ to step out and be the voice of reason among all the noise after Bill Belicheck bucked convention and went for the win on Sunday night.

First of all, I hate the Patriots and specifically I have a ton of sports hate for Bill Belicheck. The man is a cheater and a douchebag. So for me, the first test that keeping the offense on the field in an attempt to end the game is that as soon as I realized what was happening I felt a growing sense of dread. I don't think I'd have felt the same dread if it was a dumb idea.

Second, it is clear that the Patriot defense was getting tired. They'd done a really good job of holding the Colts in check early in the game. But they were short staffed on the D line, making it very difficult to bring pressure as the game wore on. Based on the ease with which the Colts moved the ball into the end zone on their two touchdown drives in the 4th quarter I don't think it is a big stretch to think that the best clutch QB in the league could do it again.

The big fallacy here is that Belicheck took some huge, ridiculous gamble by going for the first down. Lets think about this. He was gambling by asking the best player on his team to gain two yards and end the game right then and there. I'm supposed to think that the safe play was to literally hand the ball to a QB having an MVP caliber season who will eventually be put into the NFL hall of fame based on his football IQ and ability to run the 2 minute drill with deadly efficiency.

The problem here is that everyone is judging this call based on the outcome- something that makes no sense. A given football play involves so many variables, so many individual battles. From offensive linemen getting the line calls and blocking assignments and then actually executing their blocks against highly paid professional opponents. Receivers and quarterbacks making the same read of the defense, each knowing what the other expects- then running the appropriate route, making the accurate throw and securing the catch. All in the face of a pass rush and disguised coverages.

Are we to believe that Brad Childress read 'Offensive Schemes for Dummies' this offseason? Was Brian Billick hit in the head the summer he moved from Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss to coach the Ravens? Did someone steal Steve Spagnuolo's playbook when he left NY? Or is it possible that the talent level of players and the execution on the field has some amount of impact on the success or failure of a given playcall? The 'right-ness' of a playcall must be judged with all of these factors in mind.

The Patriots gained an average of 6.6 yards per offensive play. They gained 4.0 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass (including sacks). I don't see how it can be considered a risk to take your best players- Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Randy Moss, Possible Hall of Famer Wes Welker and clutch back Kevin Faulk- and give those players a chance to do 1/3 as well as they did on average over the course of their whole evening. And if they are successful? You keep the other team's best players off the field and end the game. Great, great call. Unfortunate outcome.